The Starship: Can One Rocket Change the Entire Space Industry?
SpaceX's Starship will cut launch costs to $100/kg with soft landings, securing multi-billion contracts for Moon missions and attracting billionaire passengers.
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The name Starship refers to the Super Heavy launch vehicle, on which the Starship spacecraft is also mounted. The rocket is the first stage, and the manned spaceship itself is the second stage. The rocket's task is to get the Starship to a certain point in orbit, after which the Starship continues on its own engines, while the rocket returns to Earth. Both components are reusable. This makes Starship different from SpaceX's workhorse Falcon 9 rocket, where only the first stage and fairings are reused.
Elon Musk believes that such a reusable system will reduce the launch cost to $10 million. For comparison, the company is asking $67 million for the launch of the new Falcon 9. Elon Musk is talking about is the price of $100 per kilogram of payload in orbit - it’s impressive, because currently, 1kg costs $2300, while in 1981 it was $147k - Starship can provide the logistical power of a conveyor belt to low Earth orbit.
Since 2012, Musk has estimated that the Starship program will cost between $2 billion and $10 billion to develop. In 2024 SpaceX planned to pump some $2 billion into the rocket system to finally get Starship into orbit for the first time. The long-term strategic goal of this rocket is to get mankind to Mars. A large payload for a minimal price is important for such a task. At the same time, Starship can also be used for other tasks - from satellite delivery into orbit to tourist flights to the Moon.
What is The Uniqueness of Starship?
First - the rocket's grandiose payload and free volume for payload. To better understand the scale - Starship is about the size of the half the Eiffel Tower and weighs about 3,000 tons. The planned payload capacity of the rocket is 150 tons (330k lb) in low-Earth orbit and can reach 250 tons (550k lb) if the stages are not returned to Earth. With these payload capabilities, the entire 400-ton (880k lb) International Space Station could be launched into orbit by two rockets. Starship diameter is 9 meters, which means that it will be possible to launch even larger satellites into orbit for a relatively small price. The James Webb telescope was put into orbit in folded form, and deployment required micron precision, which led to high chances of mission failure, sophisticated engineering solutions, and higher cost of construction. With deployment irregularities - 10 billion dollars and decades of work could have been wasted. With Starship volumes - this problem is solved. Moreover - orbital station modules will be even easier to deploy (the typical diameter of ISS modules is 4.2 meters).
Secondly, the complete reuse of the rocket’s both stages. This approach of reusing the stages and preparing for a new flight has already been tested on Falcon 9. Due to this SpaceX managed to reduce launch prices and achieve a near monopoly in the launch services market. At the same time, it is still unclear how many launches with the reuse of elements Starship should make to reach the payback point.
The third point is soft landing. This technology, too, has already been worked out for Falcon 9 and has shown its effectiveness for stage return. But in addition to the task of stage return - vertical landing allows for a highly accurate and soft landing of the ship itself. Now all manned spacecraft (Soyuz, Dragon, Starliner) land rather hard in water or on land. This soft landing opens up many possibilities: it is easier and more comfortable to land cargo and people on other planets, satellites can be delivered from orbit to Earth for repair and maintenance, and suborbital flights from continent to continent on Earth. We will talk more about this later. It also makes it possible to produce goods in the orbit and ship them to Earth if it’s economically viable.
Refueling in space. For long-distance flights, even the huge cargo capacity of Starship may not be enough. Therefore, SpaceX provides for the possibility of refueling in space. The spacecraft goes to orbit with a maximum load and refills the fuel spent on the launch with the help of a tanker. However, to return from Mars may require refueling already on the Red Planet itself. The easiest way to do this is to send there beforehand several Starships with a cargo of fuel. Another way that Musk claims is to generate fuel directly on Mars. Starship uses methane and liquid oxygen as fuel. Theoretically, these components can be extracted on Mars. It is difficult to imagine fuel production on another planet today, and it is unlikely to be cheaper and easier than sending ships there in advance in the early stages of Mars exploration. However, in the future, this technology is both necessary and will inevitably be realized.
What Tasks is Starship Suitable For?
Moon missions
Of course, SpaceX's short-term goals include the execution of existing Starship contracts. Most of them are related to manned flights.
First of all, SpaceX already has a $2.9 billion order from NASA under the Artemis program. Project Artemis is a grandiose project to return mankind to the Moon and SpaceX plays an important role here. Two versions of Starship are planned - a manned one for landing on the Moon and a tanker for refueling. This is a priority order for SpaceX because in parallel NASA has ordered another version of the landing vehicle for the mission Artemis-5 from Blue Origin. The contract amounts to $3.4 billion. Therefore, accomplishing this task and winning this competition could provide ongoing revenue for SpaceX in NASA's manned missions.
The big challenge here is to get Starship certified for manned flights. According to NASA requirements it will require 15 various launches of Starship.
Another series of lunar contracts:
SpaceX plans private flights around the Moon. They already have the first customer Dennis Tito and his wife. Dennis Tito is the world's first space tourist ever. This mission, part of a series of private human spaceflights by SpaceX, will take passengers around the Moon, coming within 40 km of its surface, and back to Earth in about a week. The Titos' participation marks a significant step in space tourism, with Akiko Tito becoming the first woman confirmed for a Starship flight. The timeline for this mission depends on Starship's development, anticipated for crewed lunar trips possibly beyond 2025.
The DearMoon project is a visionary art project and lunar tourism mission led by Japanese billionaire Yusaku Maezawa, aiming to take a group of artists and creatives on a week-long journey around the Moon aboard SpaceX's Starship spacecraft. Initially announced for a 2023 launch, it has been postponed until further development of the Starship. The mission will include Maezawa and eight other civilians, potentially with one or two crew members, to inspire new art that promotes global peace upon their return to Earth.
Astrolab (USA, got eight contracts with a total value of $160 million), a lunar rover developer, has partnered with SpaceX to deliver its FLEX rover to the Moon aboard a Starship mission targeted for mid-2026. This agreement marks SpaceX's first commercial contract for lunar cargo delivery. The FLEX rover, designed for flexibility and capable of traversing up to a couple of thousand kilometers, aims to support various missions, from resource utilization to data collection, primarily in the Moon's south polar region. Astrolab is also considering participating in NASA's upcoming Lunar Terrain Vehicle competition, aligning with its mission objectives.
Launching cargo into orbit
Of course, another important goal of Starship is to improve SpaceX's position in the launch services market. This will create a stable income for the execution of other goals, including Mars missions. However, for this Starship will have to demonstrate to potential customers reliability, affordability, and regular launches to become more attractive than other rockets like Falcon 9. In addition, pricing is still unclear - how quickly will SpaceX reduce launch prices to customers? Will the profitability be immediate with the initial commercial releases, or will there be a phased approach to avoid operating at a loss? Will SpaceX have enough resources to execute both the current lunar contracts and to operate the cargo version of the spacecraft to launch satellites?
It is equally important for SpaceX to complete the deployment of the Starlink constellation as soon as possible to receive stable income from the space internet service. Therefore, most likely the first cargo launches of Starship will be to satisfy SpaceX’s needs. Stable fulfillment of this task will show potential customers the launch capabilities of the new rocket.
Meanwhile, they have already secured the first contract with Sky Perfect JSAT has selected SpaceX's Starship to launch its Superbird-9 satellite in 2024. Superbird-9, built by Airbus on its OneSat platform, is aimed to deliver broadcast and broadband services over Japan and Eastern Asia starting in 2025, with an investment of 30 billion yen ($222 million).
Space tourism
Of course, cheaper payloads into space will also lead to more affordable orbital tourism. First, commercial orbital stations will create more opportunities to host tourists. Second, tourists will be able to fly on the Starship itself. And there are already such contracts, for example, the Polaris Program. Jared Isaacman, the billionaire founder of payments company Shift4, has purchased as many as three more flights from SpaceX. The first mission, called Polaris Dawn, is scheduled to launch a four-person crew led by Isaacman 2024 with the company’s Falcon 9 rocket and Crew Dragon spacecraft. Polaris Dawn is the inaugural of up to three planned missions, with the final one to be the first crewed spaceflight of SpaceX’s Starship rocket. Each such new rocket system makes space a little more accessible to each of us. And the time is not so far away when flights into space will be as affordable as airplane flights. For more info about space tourism check out our article.
Mars missions
Of course, Elon Musk and other enthusiasts dream more of Mars missions than cheap satellite launches. As we see, Mars is an important strategic long-term goal for SpaceX. Musk has already stated that he is planning to put man on Mars and said that a $100,000 hypothetical price point for a ticket to Mars should be affordable.
In this regard, Starship is an important step for a human mission to Mars - it is a large and comfortable ship for a long flight, superior in volume to the ISS, it can take on board several people and provide them with food, water, and oxygen. And finally, there are resources to put such a vehicle into orbit.
But still, for a mission to Mars and life on Mars, there are several unresolved problems. The key one is radiation protection during the flight. How to solve this problem - it is still unclear, it requires additional research, perhaps in SpaceX they are being conducted. Read our article about Top 5 blockers to establish a foothold on Mars.
Suborbital flights on Earth
Another impressive feature of Starship is to replace aircrafts. Imagine having a 40-minute flight to any city on the planet. Imagine having breakfast in Paris, flying to a business meeting in New York for lunch, and from there to Singapore for dinner. And each flight is just 40 minutes. Thanks to the vertical landing system such flights can become possible and even comfortable, and the large capacity of Starship (up to 100 people) can make such flights profitable and relatively inexpensive for people.
As always, Astronautics goes next to military applications. Fast, efficient delivery of 100 people from mainland to mainland (as well as cargo) is, of course, a potentially important military task and one cannot exclude such application of Starship as well.
Impact on the Launch Services Market
If we set aside all objections and assume that Starship will really fly in the near future - of course, it will have a serious impact on the launch services market.
Reduction of launch costs from the current $2,300 per kg to the announced $100 could be a really important breakthrough step for the development of astronautics.
But how might this affect the market?
Pros:
Affordability of spaceflight for people. The cheaper the flights - the more people can go to space as explorers, scientists, and tourists.
Size of satellites. If there are no restrictions on mass and size, it will be possible to make satellites larger, with simpler layouts. Gradually, small CubeSats may be a thing of the past.
Exploitation of celestial bodies - mining on the Moon and asteroids. Cheaper to launch large systems, and more fuel for long-distance flights - all of which could make it affordable to mine materials from asteroids and possibly the Moon.
Rapid deployment of large orbital constellations. Large payloads will allow many satellites to be launched into space at once into different orbits and inclinations. This means that orbital constellations will be deployed extremely quickly, which will lead to an increase in the number of data services from space.
Launching large orbital stations into orbit. Cheap launch of large cargoes will make it affordable In-space manufacturing and resource extraction, which now seems uneconomical.
Satellite servicing and refueling. As it becomes cheaper to launch satellites into space, it will soon turn out that it is cheaper to maintain satellites than to launch new ones. That is why they will repair old satellites more and more often. Now the situation is more often the opposite.
Space-based solar power. With the diminished launch costs and augmented payload capacity facilitated by Starship, the feasibility of establishing space-based solar power stations—structures designed to capture sunlight in space and transmit the energy to Earth—could be enhanced significantly. This potential development could introduce a novel source of clean energy, aligning with the global endeavor towards sustainable energy sources.
Cons:
A dramatic increase in the number of satellites. This will inevitably lead to an increase in space debris and make space traffic management more difficult. Under these conditions, it will be crucial for satellites to maneuver, increasing the demand for low-thrust engines.
Monopoly. SpaceX's monopoly in the launch services market will kill small startups and competition in the launch sector. Corporations might be able to monopolize space resources or control access to specific orbital positions, which could be dangerous both politically and risky in terms of diversification.
Weaponization of space. Reduced costs and expanded accessibility may incentivize the creation and deployment of space-based weaponry or surveillance systems, potentially precipitating an arms race and heightened geopolitical tensions.
What Stage of Starship's Development is Right Now?
The basic principle of SpaceX rocket development is learning by doing. They prefer experiments and adjustments of systems based on their results instead of long theoretical development. And it gives their results - two Starship launches and a lot of ground tests have already been done. April 2023 was the first one - it was planned that in about three minutes Starship would separate and continue its flight on its own engines and, after an hour and a half land off the coast of Hawaii. However, shortly before the ship separated from the carrier, an explosion occurred. As a result of this mission, more than 1,000 changes were made to the rocket design, the key change being a change in the stage undocking system.
November 18, 2023 - the second launch. This time the separation of the stages occurred perfectly, and Starship reached space - to an altitude of 150 km. Near the end of the second stage of combustion Starship released excess liquid oxygen, which led to the fire and the death of the ship. SpaceX is targeting February 2024 for Starship's 3rd flight test - a full orbital flight with landing of both stages is planned.
Of course, technology doesn't stand still. And as with any discovery or technical device, it's hard to predict where it might lead. We at Space Ambition, however, believe that space will very soon become as accessible to everyone as flying on an airplane because initially, it was also very expensive. An important step for such accessibility is an efficient heavy but cheap rocket - Starship. On the other hand, it's the rocket that could open the way to Mars for mankind. Who knows, maybe it will be on it that we will fly to space on weekends or go to colonize Mars?
It is too basic to look at Starship's massive payload capacity and low cost per kg and draw conclusions from those numbers alone. I like to think of Starship and how it will work as a scaled-up Falcon 9, but magnified x10.
Falcon 9 can already deploy large constellations quickly, but so far it hasn't been launch capacity that has held most companies back. Falcon 9 can already deploy fairly large structures cheaply, but we don't see them very often, at least not yet. Falcon 9 can already carry payloads into space, but that is rarely done.
Certainly Starship will change the market significantly by pushing what is possible with access to space, but its only one of the factors. It is a prerequisite, but not in itself sufficient.
The StarShip vehicle (including all stages) is nowhere near the size of the Eiffel Tower 😀 There might be a confusion between meters and feet