Space tourism: when will we go on vacation to Mars?

Space tourism is one of the most exciting endeavors of humankind. 2021 was the turning point for it. In one year, more non-professional astronauts flew into space than in all previous years combined.

Space Tourism: Current state

To date 50 non-professional astronauts have ventured into space. Space tourism can be bifurcated into two segments as outlined below:

Suborbital flights are those that reach ~100km above sea level or outer space, and then return back to Earth because it fails to reach sufficient horizontal velocity to stay in space. Virgin Galactic (1 flight - 4 tourists) and Blue Origin (6 flights - 32 tourists) have made a few successful flights, albeit using different approaches. The former uses an air-launch strategy, in which a space plane is first carried by aircraft to a predetermined altitude and then powers its own way to suborbital space using onboard rocket motors. The latter's rocket ascends straight up, with the domed capsule separating in outer space and floating there for a few minutes before returning down to the ground. Unsurprisingly, both companies have hundreds of people on the waitlist, despite the jaw-dropping price tag of roughly 300-500 thousand dollars.

Orbital flights are those that travel around the Earth and to space stations. The flights require more energy, so naturally, they are more expensive. Only Space Adventures, SpaceX, and Axiom Space have provided the service to eager space adventurers. The cost of a 2-week stay on the International Space Station (ISS) can cost as much as $55M, which is what SpaceX (mission Inspiration-4) charges for its 3-day orbital flights at an altitude of ~575 km.

SpaceX Inspiration-4 mission crew

Space tourism market

Annual revenue generated from space tourism reached $650M in 2021, and the industry's size is expected to exceed $9B by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 37.5%. Both segments currently have an equal share of the pie.

In fact, space tourism is evolving similarly to commercial aviation: in the beginning, it was only available to the wealthy few but then was adopted as a necessary means of transportation for everyone through continued innovation. Interestingly, pure-play space tourism companies have already exhausted their sources of financing and likely closed shop, while companies that offer space tourism as an additional available service have been more successful. Hence, we believe that the pure-play business model cannot be sustainable, just yet.

New technologies are entering the market

Still, the industry's potential is attracting attention and many companies are working on new solutions for space tourism. For instance, US-based Sierra Space has raised $1.4B to complete its space plane called "Dream Chaser" in the near future. In Asia, Space Transportation has at least $60M in the war chest to get its space plane ready for the company's first suborbital test flight in 2025. Space Walker, a university spin-off in Japan, has raised $6M for a multi-purpose space plane.

It is almost a certainty that various space companies will launch private orbital stations, or space hotels, by 2030. Axiom Space, which has already sent private space missions to the ISS and raised more than $150M, plans to launch its first module in 2025. A few competitors are working on stratospheric balloons. For example, World View Enterprises aspires to use balloons for space travel in 2024 and has $49M in its bank account to accomplish the goal. The same approach is offered by Zero 2 infinity and Space Perspective which have raised $5M and $64M, respectively.

Orbital Assembly Corporation is planning to build Voyager Station and Pioneer Station, two space hubs in the sky.

What is all the fuss about?

First, suborbital flights can actually challenge commercial aviation and make it possible to get from Australia to the US in ~40 minutes instead of ~20 hours. Second, the profits generated from space tourism can be invested in the development of new space technologies. However, the cash conversion cycle is usually long, since many space tourists have to make prepayments 5-10 years in advance. In fact, people pay for impressions, which subsequently give a boost to technology.

What about flights to other planets?

Elon Musk claims that our first colony on Mars will have over 1 million people by 2050, while the price of a single trip from Earth to Mars will decrease to $100,000. Certainly, the prediction seems a tad optimistic. However, despite the fact that Starship - Musk's space vehicle with intra-planetary capabilities - hasn't even made a single orbital flight yet, the company has already received an order from the world's first space tourist and billionaire Denis Tito, who wants to fly around the Moon. It appears that, even though the necessary technologies are not ready yet, people are still willing to pay.

Greetings From Mars by Julien Mauve

Although space tourism is essentially entertainment, it can boost the development of launch technologies and attract additional investments for the space industry. The technologies will eventually have a significant impact on our lives on Earth, creating amazing opportunities like suborbital flights from continent to continent, fast cargo delivery, hypersonic aircraft as well as cheaper space flights and research. We hope that Musk’s prediction about the price is wrong and space travel will become cheap enough that anyone can afford a trip to the Moon or Mars in the next 25-30 years!