Space tourism: our dreams of flying space are coming true
Space tourism: our dreams of flying space are coming true
Space tourism is already a reality! Market size in 2023 - $850 million, investing $350 million in private orbital stations, space traveling in a space balloon, first spacewalk by space tourists!
Issue 98: Astronauts: 13,851.
Two years ago we wrote an article about space tourism (check out here). We are very encouraged by the progress in space tourism that is happening! Today, we’d like to share with you the latest developments on the market. We hope some of you can also grab a ticket to space soon.
Last big news
On September 12, 2024, we heard again about a brand new space tourism event. Jared Isaacman (founder of Shift4 Payments, American businessman, billionaire, pilot) and Sarah Gillis (lead engineer for space operations at SpaceX) became the first private astronauts to perform a spacewalk. Their Polaris Dawn mission (organized by SpaceX) lasted five days and included science experiments, spacesuit testing, and testing of the Dragon spacecraft's communications with Starlink satellites. The Polaris program was announced by Jared Isaacman in February 2022, five months after the astronauts' private Inspiration4 mission (the first ever orbital spaceflight, all participants were not from government agencies, the first private space mission for SpaceX, the youngest U.S. citizen in space), which Isaacman also supported. Isaacman has declined to disclose the price of Polaris Dawn but the missions are estimated to cost hundreds of millions of dollars.
NASA chief Bill Nelson said Thursday's successful spacewalk was “a giant step forward for the commercial space industry and NASA's long-term goal of building a vibrant U.S. space economy.”
Why is this so important?
Firstly, each such step of space tourism will make space accessible to each of us. Space tourists have more and more opportunities, inevitably leading to the birth of demand and interest in space, and companies create unique offers.
Secondly, it is a clear example of how space tourism develops space technologies. The Dragon spacecraft was modified for this mission, and a special spacesuit for such spacewalks was developed. On the other hand, it also allowed SpaceX to solve a related problem - the first manned operational test of Dragon's laser communication via Starlink. SpaceX hopes this technology can reduce communication latency and increase data throughput for manned spaceflight. It turns out, new technologies are being developed for tourists' money, which is fine and will be utilized in the future.
Third, the mission broke a number of records. Apogee (the highest point of the trajectory) was at 1400 km above the Earth, which is the highest point of orbit a manned spacecraft has ever flown to, breaking the record set by Gemini 11 (1368.9 km), and the farthest distance from Earth anyone has flown since the 1972 Apollo 17 mission of NASA's Moon program. Because those early missions had all-male crews, female tourists broke the record by flying farther from Earth than any woman before them. This shows that private companies are giving tourists even more opportunities than professional astronauts. Which is very inspiring!
However, to be honest - it is worth mentioning that this was not a classic spacewalk. It was a so-called Stand-up EVA (Extravehicular Activity) - this is when an astronaut partially exits the spacecraft or module into open space while remaining in a standing position and not leaving the spacecraft completely.
Polaris Dawn is the first of three planned missions, the last of which will be the first flight of a SpaceX Starship rocket into space with a crew.
SpaceX's role in space tourism
Of course, space tourism is developing very actively. Elon Musk's brainchild, SpaceX, has long been synonymous with pushing the boundaries of space exploration. Just recently, SpaceX added a “Human Spaceflight” tab to its website, listing four destinations where customers can book flights:
Orbital Flight: a 3-6 day odyssey for two to four passengers. Similar to the ISS, the flight will make one revolution around the Earth every 90 minutes, and passengers will travel between 300 and 500 kilometers above the Earth.
Flight to the ISS: a 10-day journey filled with exploratory opportunities. With reservations open as early as 2025, enthusiastic astronauts can start planning their experiments in zero gravity.
Flight to the Moon: a seven-day stay on the Moon’s orbit, up to 12 passengers aboard Starship.
Mars: while details remain vague, SpaceX is teasing scraps of information, and reservations for the trip do not yet have a definite date of availability.
SpaceX has yet to disclose the price of these space adventures, but NASA says it's paying an average cost per seat of $55.4 million for a flight to the ISS. The earliest slots are pegged for the end of 2024, though we're pretty skeptical of that timeline.
Interestingly, SpaceX says it is looking for “exceptional science and research ideas” to explore ways to make life in space and on other planets possible. Customers can submit a research proposal, which SpaceX will either accept or reject. If approved, the applicant will create a detailed plan, working with the company to finalize the mission profile, crew training, equipment certification, and data collection.
This is also very important. Right now, the procedure for conducting experiments in space is quite slow. The procedure of sending an experiment to the ISS can take up to several years because of the queue and bureaucracy, and experiments on satellite platforms have not yet reached the appropriate levels. Thus, the ability to conduct experiments with the help of SpaceX makes space more accessible for science. Potentially, the procedure for conducting experiments in space can be simplified, which means that universities and scientific groups will find it more profitable and faster to conduct experiments than they do now.
SpaceX's space tourism development stands directly alongside Starship development. They already have the first customer Dennis Tito and his wife. Dennis Tito is the world's first space tourist ever. This mission, part of a series of private human spaceflights by SpaceX, will take passengers around the Moon, coming within 40 km of its surface, and back to Earth in about a week. The Titos' participation marks a significant step in space tourism, with Akiko Tito becoming the first woman confirmed for a Starship flight. The timeline for this mission depends on Starship's development, anticipated for crewed lunar trips possibly beyond 2025. By the way, check out our article about starship's impact on the New space economy.
Other giants of space tourism
There is a cheaper way to be in space as a tourist - suborbital space flights. It'll cost about $500.000. These are flights on a non-closed trajectory - instead of flying around the Earth, one goes up to an altitude of 80-100 km. Such a flight requires lower speeds and less fuel, which means lower cost. There are now two active space tourism operators
Blue Origin
Blue Origin is a private space company founded by Amazon.com founder Jeff Bezos in 2000. It became the first company in the world to successfully land a reusable rocket on a landing pad. Such a feat was accomplished by the New Shepard suborbital vehicle during a test flight in November 2015 (and many times after that).
Blue Origin uses New Shepard to launch space tourists on short flights. To date Blue Origin has launched over 40 people into space (first crewed commercial flight - 20 July 2021), The company resumed tourist flights in May 2024 after a two-year pause caused by the investigation into the September 2022 launch emergency.
Now Blue Origin is developing a new rocket, New Glenn. This rocket will open up access to orbital space tourism and will also be able to launch payloads into orbit.
Another major player in the market is Virgin Galactic
These guys are using a non-classical approach for astronautics - a rocketplane. The scheme of their flight is as follows: the airplane rises to a height of about 20 km, and from this height a rocketplane with wings is separated, which at its own rises to a height of about 80 km, after which it lands at an airfield. This method reduces gravity losses and allows for a more comfortable descent.
The company has already sent 36 people (first crewed commercial flight - 11 July 2021) into space, including Richard Branson, the company's founder. Now the company is in the stage of change. In August this year, the last flight of the ship Unity was made, after which the company spoke about its plans. Virgin Galactic is developing a new Delta spacecraft, which will significantly increase capacity.
The company's plans are:
Operate about 125 space flights per year with 6 passengers. This would carry 750 people per year at an average ticket price of $600,000, resulting in annual revenues of $450 million and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of about $100 million per year.
When expanding the fleet to four spacecraft and two mother planes at the spaceport Virgin Galactic estimates that it could fly 275 flights per year, generating $990 million in revenue. This would lead to an estimated adjusted EBITDA of $450-500 million per year, according to the company
Adding a second spaceport in Europe or the Middle East with an additional four spaceplanes and two motherships. The company forecasts full-year revenue of $1.98 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1 billion to $1.1 billion.
It's interesting how the company estimates the market. Virgin Galactic's research, combined with Credit Suisse and Jeffries Global Research, estimated a total addressable market of 300,000 people worldwide, growing at 8% annually. The company currently has around 700 customers. The valuation is based on the total number of people with a net worth of at least $10 million.
The company expects the new ship to arrive in 2026. This year, Virgin Galactic recorded revenue of $4.2 million in the second quarter, primarily due to the last VSS Unity flight in June. The company had an adjusted EBITDA loss of $79 million in the quarter and a negative free cash flow of $114 million. It ended the quarter with $821 million in cash and cash equivalents on hand.
Yes, it's fair to say that Virgin Galactic is having a tough time. The Virgin Orbit business, which was engaged in launching satellites using the air launch concept, was recently closed, and the current losses speak for themselves. At the moment, the company's forecasts seem too optimistic. But despite the business difficulties, we want to believe that the company will succeed and the new ship will prove its worth.
Orbital stations for tourism
Of course, tourists do not fly to the ISS so often, as it is loaded with professional astronauts and scientific research. Therefore, we can expect that with the emergence of new orbital stations, the number of tourists will increase significantly. Now a number of private orbital stations are being developed (check out our previous article on this topic).
NASA has signed agreements with three companies to develop designs for space stations and other commercial destinations in space. The total estimated award amount for all three funded Space Act Agreements is $415.6 million. The companies that received awards are:
Orbital reef by Blue Origin in cooperation with Sierra Space Corp. for $130 million
Starlab by Nanoracks LLC in cooperation with Voyager Space and Lockheed Martin for $160 million
Commercial Space Station by Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation for $125.6 million
It is interesting to look at the numbers. ISS is a grandiose construction, which was built for decades by the joint efforts of several countries costs about 150 billion dollars, and only the annual costs of NASA to maintain the station reaches 3 billion dollars a year.
Now private companies have the opportunity to build the stations themselves for many times cheaper (and of course their stations are much smaller than the ISS).
The purpose of these stations is similar - the station’s shared infrastructure will support the proprietary needs of diverse U.S. and international users, tenants, and visitors, including those representing research, industry, government, and the commercial sector. Features such as reusable space transportation and advanced automation can minimize cost and complexity to enable the widest range of users.
In addition to these new awards, NASA selected Axiom Space (in august 2023 funded in $350M led by Saudi Arabia’s Aljazira Capital and Korean health care company Boryung Pharmaceutical) in January 2020 to design and develop commercial modules to attach to the ISS. NASA and Axiom recently completed the preliminary design review of two modules as well as the critical design review of the module’s primary structure. In April 2022, Axiom Space launched the first all-private crew to the ISS and the module to ISS will be launched in 2025.
Apart from space stations, the market for non-human space infrastructure is developing too - new companies are emerging to offer private space labs such as Varda or robotics-driven infrastructure such as ThinkOrbital. Please feel free to reach out if you want to deep dive into this market too.
It is surprising and admirable that private companies already have the resources to build stations on their own. For example, the ISS cost about a hundred billion dollars and was built in a somewhat bizarre collaborative effort. Times have changed! We can expect that in the next 5 years there will be a number of new stations where tourists will fly to, and SpaceX and Blue Origin and others will be able to deliver tourists to these stations (and possibly Boeing if the spacecraft does get finalized).
It is important to note that the ISS will end its operation after 2028. It is still unclear what will happen to the station - SpaceX is developing a ship to flood the ISS. But we can expect that some modules of the ISS will be bought out by private companies. The ISS could be a wonderful museum, as it has been the springboard of astronautics for over 20 years!
Space tourism market
Space tourism market size was valued at USD 848.28 million in 2023. The market is anticipated to grow from USD $1,25 billion in 2024 to USD $27billion by 2032, exhibiting the CAGR of 47.4% during the forecast period.
In fact, space tourism is evolving similarly to commercial aviation: in the beginning, it was only available to the wealthy few but then was adopted as a necessary means of transportation for everyone through continued innovation. Interestingly, pure-play space tourism companies have already exhausted their sources of financing and likely closed shop, while companies that offer space tourism as an additional available service have been more successful. Hence, we believe that the pure-play business model cannot be sustainable, just yet.
Other ways to be a space tourist
There are other ways to be a space tourist. For example, the company Space Perspective is developing a balloon that will take you to an altitude of about 30 kilometers. Space Perspective completes 1st uncrewed balloon flight to the edge of Earth's atmosphere. The company says this trip will be as comfortable as renting a hotel room with a beautiful view, a bed and WiFi. You won't feel the loss of gravity (not enough flight velocity), but you will enjoy the view.
Currently, a seat aboard Space Perspective's space-lift costs $125,000, but future company plans for a larger capsule to accomodate a higher number of passengers may reduce that price "somewhere well below $100,000
You can also feel weightlessness on special airplanes. The airplane flies on a Parábola trajectory - it rises to a height and sharply begins to dive down. At the moment of the flight down there is weightlessness for about 30 seconds. For example, the company Zero-G offers such a flight for $9900.
On the other hand, you can feel like an astronaut on another planet by participating in a Martian or lunar analog mission. In the article we told about bases on Earth, which simulate life on other planets. For about $5000 you can participate in this mission as an astronaut for a week, to conduct experiments. Also a kind of tourism! Check out our article about Mars analog mission with a guide on how to become an Analog Astronaut.
We are very inspired by the fact that space is becoming more and more accessible to people. In the past, astronauts used to prepare for a flight for 5 or even 10 years. Now space tourists take about a week to prepare for a suborbital flight, and only a few months for an orbital flight. Technologies are becoming simpler, more and more tasks are taken over by automation, and this simplifies people's training.
Technology does not stand still - new rockets are being developed, new stations are being built and space is becoming available to each of us. If our grandparents could only dream of flying into space, nowadays it is possible to buy such a flight. And we are sure that by the end of the century, flights to space will be as affordable as airplane flights. Our dreams of flying will inevitably be fulfilled!
By the way, if you are planning to become a space tourist or astronaut, please shoot us an email via hello@spacesmbition.org. We’d be happy to talk!
