Industry Impact, Predictive Tech, and Financial Prospects of Solar Storms Forecasting
Industry Impact, Predictive Tech, and Financial Prospects of Solar Storms Forecasting
Space weather impacts GPS, communications, power systems, and leading to frequent satellite losses. Discover technologies predicting these events 20 hours in advance and why top hedge funds use it.
Issue 59, Subscribers 8747. Featuring Alexey Shirobokov, Co-founder of Mission Space.
On November 5th, 2023, the night sky put on a spectacular show, with polar lights stretching to regions as far as Greece, where such lights are a rarity. This natural light display occurs when molecules high in our atmosphere collide with energetic particles from the solar wind. These solar winds are more intense during periods of high solar activity when the Sun's magnetic field is especially turbulent.
While many enjoy the brilliant lights, scientists see a deeper significance. Solar storms, driven by the Sun's activity, can pose a real threat to our satellites and astronauts in space and the infrastructure on the ground. As our ventures into the Cosmos grow, understanding and preparing for these solar events become crucial. Today we will dive into the history, causes, and effects of solar storms.
Major Solar Storms Revisited
The solar storm frequency varies, with events like the Carrington Event in 1859 serving as benchmarks for their potential impact. Such powerful storms are not everyday occurrences, nor are they confined to the distant past.
Taking a glance back, the 774–775 carbon-14 spike, dated to 774 or 775 CE, stands out as a monumental event. This historical solar storm led to a significant increase in the carbon-14 isotope, as evidenced in tree rings, marking it as an event of intense solar activity. Cosmic rays interacting with the upper atmosphere generate carbon-14, which trees then absorb with CO2 in the lower atmosphere. This makes it a reliable marker for severe solar storms of the past. Such an event occurring today could have dire consequences for the infrastructure of our interconnected world, heavily reliant on satellite communications and navigation. The 1859 Carrington Event caused a disruption in the telegraph system, highlighting our vulnerability to the Sun’s whims. The 1882 and 1921 auroras brought similar disruptions. The 1972 solar storm presented a stark reminder that these events could pose serious risks to astronauts' lives, especially as we venture into deep space. The intense solar energetic particle (SEP) event from that year would have been hazardous for any astronauts outside the protection of Earth's magnetic field. Luckily, no one was in orbit those days. Space missions are not immune to solar outbursts. The Nozomi Mars Probe experienced a catastrophic failure due to a SEP event in 2002, leading to the mission’s eventual cancellation.
One of the most critical events in recent memory occurred in March 1989, when a massive geomagnetic storm caused a widespread power outage in Quebec, Canada. This incident, which resulted from a combination of space weather phenomena including large Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and associated effects, demonstrated the tangible consequences of solar activity on our power grids.
The Science Behind Solar Storms
These historical events remind us that solar storms are a significant aspect of our environment that we must consider as we expand our technological horizons into space.
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are massive bursts of solar wind and magnetic fields rising above the solar corona or being released into space. Along with solar flares and SEPs, bursts of electromagnetic radiation, and high-energy particles that travel nearly at the speed of light, reaching Earth in just over 8 minutes, CMEs are the most significant drivers of major solar storms. They reach the Earth within hours or even days. But what stirs these giant storms on the Sun?
The Sun is a sphere of hot plasma, with internal movements generating a magnetic field. The solar surface is not calm but rather a place of intense dynamism. Magnetic fields twist and turn as they rise through the solar convection zone, where hot plasma rises, cools, and sinks again. At times, these magnetic field lines become so twisted that they snap and reconnect, releasing vast amounts of energy and solar material. This process is known as magnetic reconnection and is a fundamental cause behind solar flares and CMEs.
These variations are due to the ever-changing conditions of the Sun's atmosphere. Factors like the Sun's rotation, the 11-year solar cycle, and the emergence of sunspots can all lead to instabilities that give rise to solar storms. While science may not be able to foresee a specific disturbance in the solar atmosphere, it is capable of estimating the frequency of such disturbances and can track the behavior of a CME after its ejection into the solar system — a dynamics that unfolds over several hours to days.
The Consequences of Solar Storms
A strong solar storm can increase radiation levels significantly, which can penetrate spacecraft and spacesuits, leading to radiation sickness or even more severe long-term health issues. There were at least 24 publicly-admitted satellite failures and outages during sunspot cycle 23 between 1997 and 2007, some of them ended with the satellite loss. Based on the expert opinion from our network, the realistic number can be as big as 1 satellite/month. Malfunctioned satellites endanger operational spacecraft, or can crash into each other and cause clouds of space debris.
These incidents underscore a broader trend: as space becomes more accessible, the number of satellites in orbit has skyrocketed. Many of these satellites use cost-effective but less robust components, making them more susceptible to solar-induced damage. Additionally, the miniaturization of electronics, while beneficial for costs and efficiency, also makes them more sensitive to solar radiation.
For missions to the Moon and Mars, which involve longer durations in space and greater distances from Earth, the stakes are higher. These missions require more robust shielding and contingency plans to safeguard astronauts and automated systems from sudden solar events.
Spacecraft in low Earth orbit gradually spiral downward as they encounter resistance from atmospheric drag (the slowing down of an object as it moves through the Earth's atmosphere due to air resistance). During geomagnetic storms, added heat causes the thermosphere to swell, further increasing drag on orbiting spacecraft. The 2009 collision of Iridium 33 with Cosmos 2251 underscored the critical need for accurate tracking of orbital objects. With reliable predictions of potential collisions, Iridium 33 could have activated its thrusters to avoid the incident. The stark example of this vulnerability was the loss of 40 Starlink satellites, which fell back to Earth after being struck by a geomagnetic storm. These satellites, freshly launched into orbit, encountered an enhanced atmospheric drag due to the storm, leading to reentry before they could reach their operational altitude. The financial cost of the botched launch is estimated to be between $50m and $100m.
The impact of solar storms isn't limited to space. On Earth, the effects can be widespread and multifaceted. Communication systems, particularly those relying on high-frequency radio waves, can experience significant disruptions. Solar storms can induce currents in power lines, potentially damaging transformers and causing power outages, as historically seen in Quebec in 1989. Even GPS systems, crucial for navigation and many technological applications, can suffer from decreased accuracy due to disturbances in the ionosphere caused by solar activity.
In our modern world, where the Internet of Things (IoT) and digital connectivity are becoming ubiquitous, the importance of space weather forecasting becomes increasingly critical. A solar storm could disrupt not only communications but also a multitude of services that rely on satellite technology, from weather forecasting to emergency response systems. It's not just the severe storms that pose a threat; even mild solar disturbances can cause disruptions. Unlike the rare, intense solar flares, these smaller events occur frequently, creating regular challenges for our technology-dependent society
Pioneers in Space Weather Modelling and Prediction
What actions can we take against an untamable sun? Proactivity is key. We can reduce electricity usage during solar storms to prevent overloading power grids. For crucial services like train networks, we can plan disruptions ahead of time, allowing passengers to make alternative arrangements. In some markets, especially those with real-time pricing or time-of-use pricing, electricity rates can change as often as every hour based on supply and demand dynamics. Space weather data can be used for electric energy pricing in these cases.
Satellites, too, can be better protected. Adjusting their orbits and orientation can help avoid potential collisions and reduce the drag caused by an expanded atmosphere during solar storms, which in turn could prolong their operational lifespans. For technologies such as quantum communications and GPS, introducing timely corrections is vital to maintain functionality during geomagnetic disturbances.
Several organizations and companies are at the forefront of space weather research and mitigation, each playing a unique role in this critical field. State agencies play a foundational role in monitoring and predicting space weather to safeguard our technological infrastructure.
Central to this effort in the United States is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which operates the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) that provides real-time monitoring and forecasts of solar and geomagnetic activity. NASA also contributes significantly to research and development in this field, supporting organizations like the Space Weather Technology, Research and Education Center (SWx TREC) at the University of Colorado Boulder. This center is developing more precise models to forecast space weather events. This research is crucial for enhancing the safety and reliability of satellite operations and Earth-based technologies affected by solar activity.
Spire Global (NYSE: SPIR), although focused on lower atmosphere forecasting, contributes valuable data to NOAA. They monitor the delays of radio signals in the upper atmosphere, which sheds light on the state of the ionosphere and Earth's magnetic field. Their data allows no forecasting, yet is helpful in real-time or for historical data.
Predictive Science Inc. offers expertise in modeling solar phenomena, providing the scientific community with advanced tools and training, which are essential for understanding and responding to space weather, even if they do not offer direct forecasts.
Space Environment Technologies supplies space weather tools and services that support industries such as satellite operations and aviation in managing the risks associated with solar events.
A notable new player, Mission Space, has made a significant entry with Cherenkov spectrometer-equipped satellites. They provide forecasts of incoming CMEs up to 20 hours in advance with one-hour granularity, a substantial advance in preemptive space weather monitoring. This is possible thanks to analysis of radiation from solar flares, that reach the Earth much faster, than CMEs. As Alexey Shirobokov, Co-founder of Mission Space explains:
‘Mission Space is actively engaged in the development of a sophisticated system dedicated to space weather monitoring and forecasting. This intricate system comprises a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) constellation designed for radiation monitoring, coupled with a ground facility featuring a data lake housing geo and heliophysical measurements. Notably, the ground facility incorporates an innovative system tailored for advanced data analysis.
In addition, Mission Space introduces payload instruments for radiation measurements. These instruments are versatile, could be used either as payload devices or service devices.’
Finally, Digantara's work in space situational awareness includes accounting for space weather, integral for managing the increasingly crowded orbits of Earth's satellites.
What's Next in Space Weather Science
As we advance in our understanding and capabilities, we find that the once vast and unpredictable nature of solar activity is within our grasp to forecast and mitigate. From the delicate dance of adjusting satellite orbits to the robust analysis of spaceborne data, we are learning to navigate and protect our space-bound endeavors as well as our Earth-based systems.
Questions remain about our full understanding of the Sun and its 11-year cycle, the feasibility of integrating solar, terrestrial magnetic fields, and atmospheric models, and the implications of space weather on human health. Stay tuned for an in-depth look at the physics of space weather forecasting and the tools that could redefine our readiness for the next solar outburst. Feel free to email us to discuss your ideas: hello@spaceambition.org.
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